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Posted by Roy L. Fuchs on 04/06/06 09:36
On Wed, 5 Apr 2006 19:38:39 -0700, "Mr. X" <fake@spam.net> Gave us:
>"asj" <kalim1998@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>news:1144241239.711876.316950@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com...
>> Research firms (e.g. Forrester Research) note that Blu-ray will most
>> likely win in the format war:
>
>And they're wrong. :)
>
>Since I'm bored, let me tell ya what will happen. The hardcore videophiles
>will buy both. Those with less money will buy one or the other and defend
>their choice like a religion. Neither group really matters. The vast
>majority of the public will wait to buy dual format players.
>
>While it's true that Blu-Ray disks hold 25G vs HD-DVD only holding 15G, a
>dual layer HD-DVD can be made for less than a single layer Blu-Ray disk, and
>HD-DVD uses MPEG4 (Blu-Ray only uses MPEG2 like current DVDs because Sony
>owns a bunch of patents related to it). Videophiles will argue forever
>about this but it won't matter either. HD-DVD is fundamentally cheaper to
>make and it's trivial to print a disk that plays in a regular DVD player AND
>has a second HD-DVD layer. This means that stores can stock just HD-DVD
>disks and sell to both DVD buyers and HD-DVD buyers. This means that
>consumers can buy just 1 HD-DVD and use it in their living room and also in
>the kid's old DVD player. And retailers will have less tech support issues
>because all the disks play in all the players.
>
>Studios will notice that HD-DVD releases sell in larger numbers and will
>eventually focus thier efforts on them. Consumers who really want a movie
>that's only on Blu-Ray will be able to buy it, but Blu-Ray disks only work
>in Blu-Ray machines and the players are more expensive meaning retailers
>expect less buyers and more returns. Especially since the thing that's
>holding Blu-Ray up right now is not the players but a high disk defect rate,
>even on the single layer disks.
>
>The PS3 will ship too late and too expensive to save Blu-Ray. Despite what
>every kid posting on the net thinks, their parents won't all get them a $750
>PS3 just a year after getting a $900 XBox360 or $500 on a gfx card for the
>PC? The Blu-Ray is also gonna be trying to sell into the early Vista
>compatible PCs and faceing the second generation of HD-DVD players.
>
>Of course, the HD group made a huge tactical blunder by not getting an HD
>drive into the Xbox360 and ignoreing the Revolution as well but economic
>issues for manufacturers, retailers and users still make it a slam dunk.
>
I am in agreement with these observations. Except that I won't be
buying into either new form factor.
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