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Posted by Brad Houser on 04/06/06 18:36
On 5 Apr 2006 21:55:27 -0700, asj wrote:
> Since i'm not bored and actually am working right now, i'll tell you
> you're wrong and summarize why.
>
> A lot of money has already been spent on this by the blu-ray group, and
> they know this is a long-running war. They will be prepared (Just like
> the HDVDV group) to sustain losses for some time because they know the
> profits in the end far outnumber the relatively small losses at the
> beginning.
So how does that determination to ride out losses lead you to the
conclusion as to which one will win?
>
> How do i know this? because the cellphone industry went through the
> same timeline. At the beginning the cellphone was used mainly for voice
> calls. When the cellphone manufacturers started adding Java games, and
> ringtones, and other Java apps to their cellphones, they had to invest
> much more money on the product and service infrastructure. They also
> had to contend with a public that AT FIRST was very resistant to using
> phones for anything but voice calls.
The analogy is expand capability or stay behind. Where is the consumer
compatibility issue? How is this like VHS v. Beta?
>
> But the cellphone companies and carriers knew that small losses and
> investments at the beginning were acceptable because the possibilities
> at the end were so promising. Data services were the way to go. AND
> THEY WERE RIGHT.
>
> After 5 years, almost all cellphones today come with Java capabilties,
> and data usage and revenues from data use has soared. Average Revenue
> Per Unit (ARPU), which measures the average monthly revenue generated
> for each customer has SOARED.
>
> I believe in the long run, home entertainment systems will go through
> the same cycle.
What cycle? Move to HD? That is not the question. The question is which
format of HD DVD will win?
Is a costly compatibility war worth it?
What if the hardware manufacturers make the point moot by building machines
capable of reading both?
Brad Houser
<definitely not speaking for intel>
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