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Re: TDK at work on 200GB Blu-ray Disc

Posted by ~P~ on 04/15/06 03:23

Joshua - I presume nothing...

Current poll figures show that about 40% of buyers of PS3 are planning to
use it for Blu-ray playback. AVS Forums indicates that of those who are
planning to buy Blu-ray, 75% plan to use a PS3 for their playback with 50%
of the total numbers of people ONLY planning to purchase a PS3 as their
playback device. The other 50% are either buying both a PS3/stand alone
player or just a stand alone player. These are people that would be likely
considered 'early adopters'.

PS3 sales numbers are based on corporate expectations, which of course may
mean nothing if the unit doesn't sell. I get that. Yet, I think it is a
much stronger selling point for Blu-ray than anything else. I reitorate:
If HD-DVD was included in PS3, I would highly doubt that Blu-ray would have
a chance.

I do not believe that a more expensive player will outsell the cheaper
player, but I believe that $500 nor $1,000 is cheap. But, for early
adopters, price is often much less of an issue and the qualty associated
with certain brands is often far more important than the bottom line. This
may help the manufacturers of Blu-ray have much more even sales with HD-DVD
than many people expect.

I am not saying it will do these things, but I am saying that Blu-ray is
specifically targeting a more affluent buying crowd and the more affluent
are the more likely to be early adopters and the ones with disposable income
for the technology. The pricier units are also more likely to show up in
nicer home theaters which are what are featured in magazines and trade
publications - further enhancing Blu-ray marketability.

Company A sells their cutting edge technology for $500.00 - which is
expensive, they market it towards Joe P. - and sell 100M units.
Company B sells their cutting edge technology for $1,000.00 - and markets it
towards people who can afford it easily - they also sell 100M units.

Company B then puts this new technology into a new console that sells for
$500.00(ish) and includes tons of extra features and they sell 1MM units.

Company C makes software for company 'A' and company 'B'. From the start
they see that because company 'B' is selling to those who can afford more
luxury items, that their software titles sell more readily to those clients
and sales are slightly higher.

Then Company C sees the market share for Company B's product increase 10
fold...

This is the scenario that Blu-ray is hoping for as far as I can tell. I am
not saying that this IS what will happen, but it is clearly what they are
after. They don't have a $500 product because they don't WANT a $500.00
product. They want to be perceived by the public as having a better
product, a MUCH better product. Then, they will put that much better
product into a value added system that is $500.00 or so... and see how the
public responds.

Follow up the release of the PS3 with a series of new Blu-ray players that
are price competitive with HD-DVD products...

How will it all play out? Well, that definitely is what we will find out -
tune in in 12 months right? ;o)



"Joshua Zyber" <jzyber@mind-NOSPAM-spring.com> wrote in message
news:C2N%f.3900$Es3.2091@newsread3.news.atl.earthlink.net...
"~P~" <bmxtrix2005@cox.net> wrote in message
news:yIF%f.2199$ZW3.984@dukeread04...

You're still presuming that every person who buys a PS3 will use it for
Blu-Ray playback, which is a fallacy. Even though HDTV adoption is on
the rise, the vast majority of households still have only
standard-definition analog TVs. Those people will buy a PS3 to play
videogame and will have no compelling reason to buy Blu-Ray discs to go
with it.

You're also presuming that the PS3 will be as big a hit as the PS2.
Although I'm not ruling this out, the 1-year lead and popular success of
the XBox 360, combined with the PS3's expected pricing of over $500
(recent remarks from Sony hint toward over $600) are going to take a lot
of the steam out of that, especially when Microsoft cuts the price of
the XBox 360 to coincide with the PS3's release (you know that's going
to happen). PS3 will be a big seller, I'm sure, but I am doubtful that
it will reach the PS2's level of success.

This cuts both ways. If HD-DVDs outsell Blu-Rays 10 to 1, what do those
Blu-Ray supporters get out of it?

At least we agree on this.

Your logic here perplexes me. $500 is expensive, so it won't sell, but
$1000 is more expensive so you think it will sell better? In what
universe does that work?

As for the mass market, you ignore the fact that first-generation
players are at the peak of their pricing. Prices will come down in a
year or so, when people will be able to pick up HD-DVD players for $300
(current DVD players at this price point sell very well), while Blu-Ray
players will still be $700-800.

 

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