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Posted by Black Locust on 10/07/11 11:51
10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
Wednesday, June 21 2006
I¹m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy really, I¹m rather
optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most
ridiculous thing I¹ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely
enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a
fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its
release, I began to understand the power of public mania.
There are a number of reasons why the new high definition DVD formats
have already failed and I¹ll gladly go over some of them in this
article. I am not a soothsayer, but I do study the industry and at
times, sit back and take assessment of what¹s happening from both a
consumer and manufacturer perspective.
Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc
will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:
1. Nobody likes false starts
With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a
buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a
speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream
came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a
player that didn¹t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software
does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track,
the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of
HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of
software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.
2. Format Wars Don¹t Sell Players
The only reason Sony¹s Playstation, Microsoft¹s Xbox and the Nintendo
GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of
excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they
can play the software. This is not a format war it is choice, just
like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have
one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just
the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to
provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too
greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly
separate products successfully. Take careful note a format war is NOT
competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.
3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The
new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to
instantly access tracks across an entire ³album². Convenience, not
technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast
forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again,
convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike
VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would
not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the
concept of a shiny plastic disc was new and quite frankly, it was the
coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state
technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the
color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the same and
consumer confusion will surely follow.
What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD?
Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life.
Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their
players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their
current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in
the last several years). While the potential for more extras and
alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media,
there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new
high definition DVD formats in large numbers.
4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss
out on market advances even those that can make them money (ie. Why is
a computer company running the world¹s most successful online music
store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD
bandwagon just yet and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If
the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the
next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software
titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next
10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they
seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip
or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking
place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist
with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a
new, unproven technology even if it saves them from some other
copyright headaches.
Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and
this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for
consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large
electronics chains.
5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will ³jump
start² the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable
of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that
the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if
current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the
average consumer¹s living room. The result is that the PS3 will
primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional
group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account
#4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward
in market penetration as a home video format at least not anytime
soon.
History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by
such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a
place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2,
Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as ³set-top
boxes² but in reality find themselves situated in more ³gaming-centric²
environments playing you guessed it, games.
6. Those Who Ignore History
For years we¹ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading.
All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could
have prevented any illegal copying at least for all but the most
dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be
higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes
and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats
failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why?
Without an artificial ³shove² from the record industry which never
materialized technology alone is never enough to push a new format
into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use,
DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made
listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to
correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new
formats.
Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording
industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the ³format war² had
been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other)
we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music
would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a
stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed
causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a
short term loss of licensing revenues.
7. People Want Technology that¹s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being
able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy
Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference
between that and his older SD TV is amazing at least when he¹s
watching DVDs. You see, that¹s the problem and it¹s two-fold. While
most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they¹re already
impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing
than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high
definition discs.
The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV
and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he
is dumbfounded by his cable TV which actually looks worse than it did
on his old set (mostly because it¹s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy
Bob that he¹d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his
cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite
shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren¹t yet available
in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many
Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The
last thing they¹re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest
thing.
8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and
inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as
they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by
8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP
HDTV) these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard
before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a
shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even
less sales to early-adopters.
9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn¹t Help
I¹ll admit it, we¹re part of the ³problem² (though I¹d like to think
we¹re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An
increasingly skeptical news media isn¹t buying into the hype of HD DVD
and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on
DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle
into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to
proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new
DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba
flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at
least not yet) is hard to avoid.
10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD
on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high
definition DVD will be something that isn¹t relevant in a
service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer¹s recent push
for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more
interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality
source material. Even with respect to high definition formats,
downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high
definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer
model is being readied for testing in South Carolina¹s head-end for Time
Warner Cable this year.
So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
not an industry takeover.
By Clint DeBoer
http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php
--
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush
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