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Posted by Bobbie on 01/01/07 08:33
While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
the Bumble Bee', Dr. GroundAxe wrote:
> Rexunrex@yahoo.com wrote:
>> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
>> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
>> have been stillborn all along.
>>
>> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>>
>> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
>> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>
> Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good enough'
Ummm. Except for one problem. DVD was a very noticeable improvement over
VHS and S-VHS. HD-DVD / Blue-Ray isn't all that noticeable of an
improvement over DVD. If marginal improvement drove innovation then S-VHS
would have replaced VHS and Digital Compact Cassette would have replaced
the conventional cassette.
>
>>
>> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
>> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
>> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
>> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
>> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
>> video card, even that is useless.
>
> DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
> the nose. This is not news.
But again, most everyone who updated their video collection from VHS to
DVD isn't going to run out and replace their players and DVDs just for a
marginal at best improvement in picture and audio.
>>
>> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
>> to be resolved.
>
> 6 months should see a clear winner emerge
Won't be settled that quickly.
HD is backed by Toshiba, Microsoft, NEC and Sanyo.
Universal Studios is currently the only movie production company to solely
back HD-DVD
Blu-ray has of course Sony & Philips the original co-creators of Compact
Disc as backers. Blu-ray also has Apple Computer, Panasonic.
Dell strongly backs Blu-ray:
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/innovation/en/cto_bluray?c=us&l=en&s=corp
HP has shifted from solely supporting Blu-ray to supporting both but with
a preference for Blu-ray
Sony owns a movie studio. Walt Disney, MGM and 20th Century Fox are solely
supporting Blu-ray
>
>>
>> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
>> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
>> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
>> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
>> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
>> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
>
> Dickhead
I've only got a very few movies that picture clarity and detail are the
centre point. Most of my movies as suitable in glorious 525 line NTSC. I
don't feel the need to upgrade just for the sake of upgrading.
>
>>
>> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
>> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
>> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
>> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
>> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
>
> Nonsense
Nonsense? The AACS consortium didn't even bother to realize that by coming
up with a late to the party copy protection scheme called HDCP, they've
practically relegated TV's like my year old Toshiba 16:9 HDMI equipped set
to the trashbin. See, the HDMI specification has already been out for just
over 5 years. All sorts of manufacturers have been building sets that are
fully HDMI compliant. But now because of the AACS and their insistence of
the modification of HDMI with the inclusion of the HDCP scheme means that
HDMI has been broken. What's to stop these consortium's from changing
standards mid-stream again?
Nice thing about all of this is the coding for HDCP isn't allowed to be
carried in flashrom or other modifiable/readable media. It must be mask
programmed into the decoder. So again, if the consortium decides they need
to change something in the coding, looks like you'll be outta luck.
>
>>
>> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
>> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
>> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
>> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
>> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
>> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>>
>> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
>
> Wow, I'm convinced
>
>>
>> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
>> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
>> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
>> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
>
> Vapourware.
Lemme see, I can go into FutureShop today and get a 5 GB SD card for
about $40. Two years ago a 256MB card would have cost over $100.
I can see in 5 to 10 years flash type storage being up to 100 to 200 GB
and selling for a lot less than what the 5GB costs today.
Hitatchi and Toshiba both have commercially available 1TB 3.5 inch hard
drives. I can get a 100 GB Maxtor for less than $80.00. I can see a 10TB
hard drive on the market in less than 2 years.
This means that the debate over DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-ray may already be a thing
of the past.
Can you imagine how simple movie distribution would be in the near future?
You go to the video store with your little 20 GB SD card and the account
card from you video player. The account card would be used to encrypt the
movie so that the SD card is only readable and playable on the video
player that your account card is assigned to. If copies of your movie are
found to be floating around on the Internet, watermarks injected into the
video and audio will enable the movie to be tracked so far back as to the
last person who purchased the movie from an authorized stream vendor.
If you want packaging to go with your movie for that old time authentic
feel, these can be printed on site for a nominal fee.
The only thing holding a scheme back at the moment is the cost of the
media. Optical wins at the moment, but how much longer can it hold on?
>
>
>> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml
>>
>> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
>> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
>> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
>>
>> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
>> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
>> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
>> a true Fool's Errand.
>>
>> Rex
>>
--
Bobbie the Triple Killer
http://members.shaw.ca/bobbie4/index.htm
email Bobbie @ bobbie4R3MOV3TH1S@shaw.ca
remember to 'remove this'
Bobbie recently switched to Ubuntu 6.
Why? Cause he can, that's why.
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