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Posted by M.I.5? on 01/03/07 13:24
"Bobbie" <bobbie4R3MOV3TH1S@shaw.ca> wrote in message
news:pan.2007.01.01.08.33.40.771017@shaw.ca...
> While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
> the Bumble Bee', Dr. GroundAxe wrote:
>
>> Rexunrex@yahoo.com wrote:
>>> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
>>> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
>>> have been stillborn all along.
>>>
>>> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>>>
>>> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
>>> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>>
>> Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good
>> enough'
>
>
> Ummm. Except for one problem. DVD was a very noticeable improvement over
> VHS and S-VHS. HD-DVD / Blue-Ray isn't all that noticeable of an
> improvement over DVD. If marginal improvement drove innovation then S-VHS
> would have replaced VHS and Digital Compact Cassette would have replaced
> the conventional cassette.
>
You jest of course. Bluray (I haven't seen a HD DVD production yet) is a
noticeable improvement (provided the source material is capable of the
format). I have noticed that the last two DVDs that I have bought have been
presented in letterbox format rather than anamorphic widescreen. If I had a
suspicious mind, I would suspect the DVD producers of deliberately
downgrading the quality just as Sky has from the tail end of last year
(presumably to move people onto their HD service).
>>
>>>
>>> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
>>> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
>>> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
>>> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
>>> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
>>> video card, even that is useless.
>>
>> DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
>> the nose. This is not news.
>
> But again, most everyone who updated their video collection from VHS to
> DVD isn't going to run out and replace their players and DVDs just for a
> marginal at best improvement in picture and audio.
>
But most people didn't upgrade their VHS collection (unless the production
was something really good). As I said given the proper source material the
improvement gain on picture is much more than just marginal. Audio is
another matter as a 1.5 Mbps DTS DVD is pretty amazing already.
>
>>>
>>> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
>>> to be resolved.
>>
>> 6 months should see a clear winner emerge
>
> Won't be settled that quickly.
>
> HD is backed by Toshiba, Microsoft, NEC and Sanyo.
> Universal Studios is currently the only movie production company to solely
> back HD-DVD
>
> Blu-ray has of course Sony & Philips the original co-creators of Compact
> Disc as backers. Blu-ray also has Apple Computer, Panasonic.
> Dell strongly backs Blu-ray:
> http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/innovation/en/cto_bluray?c=us&l=en&s=corp
> HP has shifted from solely supporting Blu-ray to supporting both but with
> a preference for Blu-ray
> Sony owns a movie studio. Walt Disney, MGM and 20th Century Fox are solely
> supporting Blu-ray
>
Blu-ray may have had a head start as blu-ray players (and recorders) have
been available in the UK for a couple of months. However, it may be that
the war degenerates into the DVD-R and DVD+R war which has largely petered
out as drives capable of handling either are now almost universal. There is
nothing to prevent players (and recorders) appearing that will handle either
format, but in the early stages the stake holders may refuse to licence
hardware that can handle the competing format.
>
>>
>>>
>>> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
>>> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
>>> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
>>> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
>>> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
>>> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
>>
>> Dickhead
>
> I've only got a very few movies that picture clarity and detail are the
> centre point. Most of my movies as suitable in glorious 525 line NTSC. I
> don't feel the need to upgrade just for the sake of upgrading.
>
Movies are still unable to utilise the reproduction capabilities of DVD
(though a few made directly from 65mm negatives have come somewhere close).
Only video originated material is fully able to expolit DVD - and then only
from professional cameras. The one advantage that movie originated material
has on 625 disks is that it occupies almost half the space of video,
something that is far less true on 525 line disks because of the 3:2
pulldown that has to be used.
>>
>>>
>>> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
>>> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
>>> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
>>> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
>>> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
>>
>> Nonsense
>
> Nonsense? The AACS consortium didn't even bother to realize that by coming
> up with a late to the party copy protection scheme called HDCP, they've
> practically relegated TV's like my year old Toshiba 16:9 HDMI equipped set
> to the trashbin. See, the HDMI specification has already been out for just
> over 5 years. All sorts of manufacturers have been building sets that are
> fully HDMI compliant. But now because of the AACS and their insistence of
> the modification of HDMI with the inclusion of the HDCP scheme means that
> HDMI has been broken. What's to stop these consortium's from changing
> standards mid-stream again?
> Nice thing about all of this is the coding for HDCP isn't allowed to be
> carried in flashrom or other modifiable/readable media. It must be mask
> programmed into the decoder. So again, if the consortium decides they need
> to change something in the coding, looks like you'll be outta luck.
>
>
Copy protection is a controversial issue. HDCP was included in the original
HDMI specification, but it is now a revised version that has been deployed.
The situation is worst that you state, because the new blu-ray and HD DVD
media are going to require to be activated before you can play them (It has
even been said that you are going to have to activate them every time you
play them, but this seems to be overkill, and I suspect is scaremongering).
The disk producers have stated that they reserve the right to deactivate any
disk they *believe* to have been inappropriately copied.
I personally would love to see the whole DRM issue collapse in on itself,
but this will only happen if the consumer puts his foot down with a firm
hand. But it just isn't going to happen. Even CDs these days have copy
protection, but has that stopped the consumers buying them?
>
>>
>>>
>>> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
>>> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
>>> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
>>> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
>>> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
>>> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>>>
>>> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
>>
>> Wow, I'm convinced
>>
>>>
>>> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
>>> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
>>> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
>>> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
>>
>> Vapourware.
>
> Lemme see, I can go into FutureShop today and get a 5 GB SD card for
> about $40. Two years ago a 256MB card would have cost over $100.
> I can see in 5 to 10 years flash type storage being up to 100 to 200 GB
> and selling for a lot less than what the 5GB costs today.
>
> Hitatchi and Toshiba both have commercially available 1TB 3.5 inch hard
> drives. I can get a 100 GB Maxtor for less than $80.00. I can see a 10TB
> hard drive on the market in less than 2 years.
>
>
> This means that the debate over DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-ray may already be a thing
> of the past.
>
> Can you imagine how simple movie distribution would be in the near future?
> You go to the video store with your little 20 GB SD card and the account
> card from you video player. The account card would be used to encrypt the
> movie so that the SD card is only readable and playable on the video
> player that your account card is assigned to. If copies of your movie are
> found to be floating around on the Internet, watermarks injected into the
> video and audio will enable the movie to be tracked so far back as to the
> last person who purchased the movie from an authorized stream vendor.
>
> If you want packaging to go with your movie for that old time authentic
> feel, these can be printed on site for a nominal fee.
>
> The only thing holding a scheme back at the moment is the cost of the
> media. Optical wins at the moment, but how much longer can it hold on?
>
It used to be held that any new media that the market accepted had a 30 year
life. 78s lasted about that time. LPs, CDs and VHS all appear to have had
a similar life. But it looks like DVD may not even manage 20 years. Such
is the march of progress. The problem can only get worse.
>
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