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Posted by Jordan on 02/13/07 02:20
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,251514,00.html
(some snips)
"With each console, Sony has bundled a copy of the Blu-ray movie
"Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby," together with a gift
certificate for $15 off the purchase of a second Blu-ray movie. ...
since a consumer must make the choice to buy another disc, the effects
of the gift certificate would influence the Nielsen numbers."
"I think it's safe to say that the gift certificate is the reason for
the sudden spike in Blu-ray disc sales, even if Crawford will not. As
this USA Today article notes:
"Most people spend their gift cards in January and February. And
because retailers can't count gift card sales until the cards are
redeemed, those sales dollars are pushed out of December into the next
year. Gift card sales now represent 5% of total holiday sales, so
those dollars are having a significant impact on retailers' business
in the months after Christmas. About 40% of card redemptions are made
in the first week after Christmas. But the rest comes in January or
early February."
This seems to be consistent with the curves as indicated by the
graphs: a dramatic run-up in Blu-ray sales in January, followed by a
flattening of the curve in late January. The PlayStation3 was launched
on Nov. 17 in the U.S., about the time the Blu-Ray sales begin to head
upward."
"February/March trends will be telling
If this is true and the gift certificates indicate an aberration,
rather than a trend, then I would think we would see the Blu-ray
numbers continue to flatten, followed by a decline, complemented by a
resurgence in the HD DVD unit share. (The assumption here, of course,
is that the early adopters sprung for a PS3, and the rest of the world
is waiting for a price drop.)"
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