Posted by Jay G. on 09/27/05 02:03

Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
>
>Jay G. (Jay@tmbg.rg) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
>> DVD players were easily $100 more than what they are now when the
>> format was introduced, and it managed to become a success in the
>> marketplace.
>
>Remember that the $100 is *cost* to the manufacturer. The rule of thumb
>is that the end-user price is around 3x the manufacturer cost.

That seems like a lousy rule of thumb, especially for electronics. I know
on the retail end that a fair number of electronics are sold at a much
smaller profit margin, often only a few percent above cost. This
is why when stores sell you computers, camera, and printers, they
try to shovel on any accessories, which they sell at a much higher
profit margin. Some stores sell things like USB cables for 3-4x
more than *their* cost.

>> The big hurdle for Hi-Def discs isn't the higher cost of
>> the players, but the fact that in order to see any difference, most people
>> will have to buy a new TV.
>
>Correct, so with $300 the end-user price for the *drive*, there just won't
>be any players less than $500.

Except for the PS3. I'm wondering where you got the figure of a minumum
cost of $66 for the rest of the player.

>With that cost, the need for a new display,
>and the lack of titles (even if they manage to release 1000 titles in
>the first year, that's nothing compared to DVD),

Nothing compared to what DVD has now, or when it was first released?
When DVD was first released, its title selection was nothing compared
to VHS or laserdics, yet it managed to thrive, andeven put the other
two formats out of business. I don't think Blu-Ray will retire DVD any
time soon, but there is room in the marketplace for it. One factor to
consider in selling titles is that the best selling discs tend to be the
new releases. So Blu-Ray isn't at a disatvantage for the top sellers,
anda ctually has the advantage of having a higher quality version of
titles that a customer doesn't have yet.

> anything else (like DRM)
>that slows down acceptance will pretty effectively kill HD movie discs.

People always seem to forget that DVD has DRM too.

-Jay

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