Posted by Black Locust on 11/03/05 02:00

In article <rkeim19qi8ibfbqmeu5sc9210ihtl01qam@4ax.com>,
John <road@runner.com> wrote:

> My other question is regarding Blue-Ray and High Definition
> television. When, if at all, are we likely to see BRDs replace DVDs?

Well, there's 2 competing HD formats. One developed by Sony called
"Blu-Ray" and one developed by Toshiba called "HD-DVD." There have been
many discussions on this very subject in this group. Just look them up
at groups.google.com if you want to read them, but most everyone agrees
it will be several years AT LEAST before DVD is "replaced" by one of
these formats. This is mostly due to the fact that an ugly format war is
about to begin and everyone will be required to purchase a pricey HDTV
set before these HD discs are a realistic option. The format war could
go on for years alone. To give you some perspective, consider that the
VHS vs. Betamax war in the late 1970s/early 1980s lasted for nearly 10
years...

> I can't quite believe that DVDs could be replaced already, and it
> seems that they have only taken off in the last few years. I believe
> it was only two years ago in 2003 that DVD sales became the majority
> ahead of VHS.

Well, 2003 was actually when DVD rentals surpassed VHS rentals for the
first time. I believe it was June of 2003 when this first happened. DVD
sales were outpacing VHS sales back in 2000 or 2001 if I'm not mistaken.
But I understand where you're coming from. It's definitely too soon for
either Hollywood or electronics manufacturers to be writing off the DVD
format. And I think you'll find the majority of consumers out there
agree with us, which is what matters in the end. They can try to "force"
us to upgrade, but in the end it's us consumers who speak with our
wallets. We control the market.

> I think the pace of change is a little too fast for my liking. The end
> consumer can not be happy about spending a lot of money on DVD
> equipment for it to all be replaced by newer High Definition BRDs so
> quickly. Surely for Blue-Ray to really take off and replace DVDs
> consumers would have to buy HD television sets first of all?
>
> There wouldn't be much point recording a standard definition programme
> on a high definition recorder would there? When are broadcasters in
> the UK likely to start beaming us HD programming? I believe they can
> get it in the US and have been able to for a while? But not here.
>
> DVDs took a while to get going I believe, and the standard has been
> around since 1996?

It did launch in 1996, but ONLY in Japan. The rest of the world didn't
see it until 1997, believe it or not.

> Yet it only really started taking off 6 or 7 years
> later. Would it likely be the same for Blue-Ray? Perhaps this wont
> truly take off for another 5+ years?

More like 10 years, assuming it doesn't become a "niche" product like
Laserdisc. Even most "experts" agree that the switch from DVD to HD DVD
will be much slower than it was going from VHS to DVD. Like I said,
google this subject and you'll find plenty of discussions in this group
regarding this very issue.
--
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush

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