Posted by Larry Qualig on 06/23/06 20:55

Neill Massello wrote:
> Erik Funkenbusch <erik@despam-funkenbusch.com> wrote:
>
> > We'll see. History has shown that content alone will not drive a
> > technology people don't want. And frankly, Sony has seldom succeeded in
> > driving consumer technology (Minidisc? Memory Stick? Betamax?).
>
> Don't forget SACD. Perhaps Sony should change their slogan to
> "Innovation Nobody Wants".
>
> I predict a fairly slow adoption rate for HD-compatible discs, whatever
> the format. Consumers are being asked to shell out significant cash for
> new hardware at a time when the whole idea of buying or renting movies
> on plastic discs seems to be in decline.


I also expect a slow adoption rate for High-Def movies and players but
for completely different reasons.

First of all, I wasn't aware that buying/renting DVDs was in a
significant decline. (It may be... I just haven't heard anything of the
sort.) I know that box-office ticket sales are down but this is
supposedly due to people waiting for the movie to be released on DVD
for purchase/rent.

The reasons I think the adoption will be slow are:

1) Most people do not own high-def television sets. So for most people,
spending 10x (literally) on a HD player doesn't make sense since there
will be no perceptible difference in picture quality on their existing
standard TV set.

2) The majority of people who own DVD players bought them within the
last 5 years. Consumers will not buy into the idea that after they
finally got a DVD player they now need to replace it with a
newer/better one.

3) Prices are way too high. Chicken-and-Egg problem here because once
they start selling lots of HD players/movies the price will come down
due to the economies of scale. But for the next year or so... prices
are too high to attract the average consumer.

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