Posted by Allan on 12/09/05 13:42

On Fri, 09 Dec 2005 01:34:56 -0600, Black Locust <bl2112@hotmail.com>
wrote:

>In article <ta2ip1haqor89fbeavb8q890guj0ki48hn@4ax.com>,
> Allan <Spamstillsucks@buffyandkantica22arestillbrianlamb.org> wrote:
>
>> Well I didn't mention DVD-A no SACD.
>
>You're ignoring the issue. My point was, a new format doesn't
>automatically equal success.

Never said it did. All I said was CD's killed LP's and Cassettes.

>There have been numerous audio/video
>formats over the years that were history before they even had the chance
>to get going. Remember Philips Video 2000 videcassette format? Which
>BTW, was superior to both Betamax and VHS, but it didn't mean a damn
>thing to the average consumer. It was pratically dead on arrival.

True. Not sure what that has to do with CD's.

>> The train is actually heading the opposite direction with Audio....
>> Does that mean everyone with using their IPOD's to watch the latest
>> Blockbuster? My gut says no.
>
>It's expected that by 2010 internet bandwidth will have reached the
>levels where it will be possible to download an entire movie in roughly
>3 minutes time. So who's to say video isn't going to go down the same
>path as audio? I could quite easily see standard DVD continuing to be
>the format of choice until 2010 or so. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD could end up
>being nothing more than blips on the radar(much like the aforementioned
>Video 2000). I'm not saying this will be the case, but it's a definite
>possibily.

I do think some sort of on Demand services... via Internet... cable or
sat will take hold.

Gates has said that HD DVD in whatever format it takes will be the
last psychical format that will be released. I understand what he is
saying, but I feel that consumers will want something to "hold on to".
Hard Drives die, IPOD's break... and everything is gone.

It will be interesting.

>> ?? Not quite sure what you mean. The VHS market and Laser market
>> were quite different... and DVD killed them both.
>
>What's so difficult to understand? You were saying that only now is DVD
>finally doing VHS in for good. So that means VHS is dying only a mere 4
>or 5 months before the launch of Blu-Ray, ASSUMING IT DOES INFACT LAUNCH
>NEXT SPRING. Using that analogy, DVD won't be completely done in until a
>format comes along to replace Blu-Ray(or HD-DVD)! No need to worry about
>DVD dying anytime soon if we're using this argument.

I separated Lasers and VHS because I felt they were different markets.
Falling down to 4% of a market, is effectively dead. "Wal-mart" is one
of the last to go, Target and the like got out a long time ago.

I still see a new LP at my record store once and a while, that doesn't
mean the market is still alive. Heck they may be Cassettes out there
been sold in Truck Stops. The fact remains, CD killed them both.







"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game
because they almost always turn out to be -- or to be indistinguishable from
-- self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
- Neil Stephenson, _Cryptonomicon_

[Back to original message]