Posted by Aaron J. Bossig on 01/01/07 09:37

Rexunrex@yahoo.com wrote in
news:1167619148.476168.320960@v33g2000cwv.googlegroups.com:

> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove
> to have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous.
> Even playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.

> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and
> drive are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The
> minority of newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this
> technology. The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive,
> but without a good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a
> new monitor & video card, even that is useless.

For the budget-minded, the hardware could be packed onto a high-end
computer system for a bit more than list price. This is already
happening to many OEM machines.

> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for
> it to be resolved.

That's not a reason, it's a guess.

> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.

They were also better than VHS, that didn't stop DVD. In fact, with
more cheap theaters in operation, the difference may not be as
noticable.

> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
> image.

Irrelevant comparison.

>Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD &
> Bluray hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going
> to spend a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment
> or a very good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game
> console.

What about buying 247 boxes of Twinkies? Or, try and chuck silver
dollars into the mall fountain? You could invest in hog futures...

Yes, you *COULD* do any number of these things, but none of them
are relevant to the issue.

> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

The same thing was said before DVD was cracked. Hell, Divx might even
have been cracked eventually had anyone thought it worthwhile to do so.

> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html

I don't think the general public will lift its collective head out of
the sand anytime soon, on this issue or any other.

> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the
> stories on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB
> CDROM, or about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray
> conflict is resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

The people that hold off on new technology won't even be concerned by
this debate. Their very nature will keep them away for over 15 years.
Hell, some people haven't even moved to DVD yet.

I'm not saying that BR/HD isn't a stillborn format, but I don't think
your examples are evidence to support that idea.


--

Aaron J. Bossig

http://www.GodsLabRat.com
http://www.dvdverdict.com

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