Posted by Doug Jacobs on 01/17/07 20:44

In alt.games.video.sony-playstation2 asjbiotek@gmail.com wrote:

> Nowadays, I look at logic and long trends, not superficial short term
> hype, and almost everything points to Blu-ray burying HD-DVD.

> Points:

> 1. There are already more movie titles in Blu-ray than HD-DVD

Hybrid players make this moot. Consumers no longer need to choose which
format to back.

> 2. Blu-ray discs are outselling HD-DVD discs right now by more than
> 3x... why? See next point:

Hybrid players make all single-format players on the market obsolete (not
that many people actually BOTHERED with either...)

> 3. Because of the playstation 3, there are several times more Blu-ray
> players than HD-DVD players in the market, so the potential customer
> base of blu-ray is already several times larger than HD-DVD (about 80%
> of playstation buyers say they will start purchasing blu-ray movies)!!!

Are people really using the PS3 for movies? I guess that'd make sense
since there's only one decent game for the PS3 right now - and that's
Resistance. But again, with the hybrid players coming out, there's no
reason to buy the PS3 as a blu-ray player.

> * plus, Blu-ray player/recorder manufacturers include HUGE companies
> like Samsung, Panasonic, Sony, Philips, etc, all of whom are much
> bigger than Toshiba (which produces HDD-DVD). You think these guys are
> gonna lose?

All of them. No one's going to bother with a burner/recorder until you
handle both formats. It's the DVD-R/+R thing all over again.

> 4. FIVE big movie studios are releasing ONLY in blu-ray, including
> DISNEY, SONY, and 20th Century Fox.

And porno studios are choosing HD-DVD for cheaper discs and players. 6
of one, half a dozen of the other.

> Can you imagine anyone buying an HD-DVD player that will never play The
> Lion King, Toy Story, or any other Disney movie? What about Sony and
> Spiderman? or 20th century fox and Star Wars? Etc Etc.

Can you imagine anyone buying a Blu-ray player that couldn't play
HD-DVDs? I can't. Hybrid players are the future. Consumers don't like
having to make choices.

> 5. There are now 200 GB blu-ray discs in research and 100 GB discs in
> commercial development...HD-DVD will not even come close to this.

HD-DVD developers have announced they're developing multi-layered HD-DVDs
with 250-500GB in capacity.

I'd expect this sort of tit-for-tat competition to go on for some time
between both camps. The average consumer isn't going to care though.
Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have the capacity to present a movie in HD.
Beyond that, who cares?

> So, if toshiba runs out of money and gives up on HD-DVD what happens to
> all the people who bought HD-DVD? ;-)

Same thing that happens if Blu-ray loses the fight. Which is why only
idiots are buying either now.

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