Posted by Geena Phillips on 01/23/07 05:47

Zackman wrote:
> asjbiotek@gmail.com <asjbiotek@gmail.com> spake thusly:
>
>> You do know you proved my point right? especially given the two
>> factors i listed :
>>
>> 1. FIVE major studios are NOT releasing titles in hddvd.
>
> Actually, it's three. Sony/MGM (same company), Disney and Fox. But the porn
> studios are leaning towards HD DVD, and anyone who followed the VHS vs.
> Betamax war knows that porn getting behind VHS was one of the reasons that
> format ultimately won. The porn industry as a whole makes more money on home
> video sales than any single Hollywood studio does.
>
>> Therefore, as
>> time passes (and as shown in the period from 2006 to today) the number
>> of blu-ray titles will become SIGNIFICANTLY larger than hd-dvd.
>
> Unless Blu-ray doesn't gain any meaningful traction and/or HD DVD pulls
> ahead, in which case all the studios have to do is say, "OK, we're going to
> release on HD DVD now too." You know that none of the studios signed
> exclusivity agreements, right? And that HD DVD is quicker and easier to
> manufature?
>
> Right now studio support is the only true advantage Blu-ray has. So far it
> hasn't done anything to help the sale of Blu-ray players.
>
>> 2. As time passes, the number of blu-ray players will become
>> overwhelmingly larger than hd-dvd, since: (a) More manufacturers are
>> producing blu-ray (Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, etc)
>
> LOL, that's some interesting logic. You think there's so much demand for
> Blu-ray players that it takes a bunch of manufacturers working together to
> meet it? Afraid not. In fact it just makes it even less desirable for those
> manufacturers to invest a lot in Blu-ray player design and manufacture,
> because there's more competition for the same teensy tiny segment of the
> market that actually wants this technology right now.
>
> (b) PS3 sales by
>> itself far outnumber any hddvd players.
>
> So? There are over 10 million PSPs out there -- why did UMD movies die a
> painful death? I'm sure a lot of PS3 owners will buy a Blu-ray movie or two
> out of curiosity -- I did -- but those million or so PS3s aren't going to
> turn the tide in Blu-ray's favor. Hell, a certain percentage of those PS3s
> can't even be used for Blu-ray movies because they were bought by people
> with standard def TV sets. And even though the PS3 is the cheapest Blu-ray
> player available, they are gathering dust on store shelves. Even a Blu-ray
> player PLUS a next-gen gaming system together in one device isn't enough to
> motivate the average consumer to buy one.
>
>> THEREFORE, given the larger
>> player base (and as shown in numbers of discs sold from 2006 to today,
>> where sales of hddvd was much larger than blu-ray in 2006, but where
>> blu-ray now surpasses it by almost 60:40), the sales for blu-ray will
>> become significantly larger than hd-dvd sales as time passes.
>
> You need to go back to college and take Statistics 101.
>
> Face it, this format was is going to drag on for a couple more years. And as
> long as the two technologies are so evenly matched, most consumers won't
> feel compelled to buy either.

Excellent points, Z. I know I'M holding out for a player that plays both
formats.

--
--
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