Posted by Derek Janssen on 08/20/07 23:29

Lloyd Parsons wrote:

>>Speaking as one who remembers seeing DVD explode in the two or three
>>months after DiVX Armistice Day, I can vouch that it's nice to see
>>prices come down, but that technical innovation only ramps into high
>>gear when we all have *ONE* machine to fiddle around with in the labs.
>>Doesn't get distracting or split up the workers.
>
> So I think we need HDDVD in there also to keep the mfgs on their toes
> and maybe we as consumers won't get so screwed. Look at all the crap
> with HDMI alone for examples. HDMI was more about control and security
> and less about anything else, hence it works pretty flakey on all too
> much equipment.

Interestingly enough, the Robert Cringely PBS "Infomercial" for HDTV
(that the local HD channel runs every single night at 5am) uses the same
format-adoption metaphor that I was going to use--
Ie., that the 19th-cty. railroads didn't become a manifest-destiny
business until tracks became the same gauge from one company to the
next, or shipments didn't get delivered...The Vanderbilts invested their
money in the mantra of Standardization for American Business, and
cleaned up on it.

I know it's sacrilege, but most people who want to buy whatever new
player JUST DON'T CARE about HDMI vs. Component, or Dolby vs. TrueHD, or
who theoretically "should" be the format, which was HD fans' big
academic arguments in the first place--Like the War itself, people just
want to know Who Won.
And after we know, *then* it gets cleaned up and starts being harnessed
to useful purposes.

>>The wave hasn't reached shore yet, but it's coming:
>>As posted in another thread, I'd just made the leap myself to the "2%
>>niche market" last weekend (so, guess it's "3%" now? ^_^ ), and on an
>>impulse purchase at that.
>>
>>Even then, there were already "Feb. '09" ATSC scare signs up at Best Buy
>>to sell their 60" flatscreens to an easily tech-panicked public--And for
>>those already scared into widescreen 720i adoption, judging from my own
>>household's reactions...oh, it's like the birth of DVD all over again:
>>Thought I'd forgotten the joy of corrupting inexperienced
>>tech-illiterate lambs who'd never seen this stuff before. >:)
>
> You sound a bit like me. I'm not a real early adopter usually, but now
> and then something catches my eye and it is off to the store with the
> plastic. HDDVD and later Blu Ray was like that. I'd been watching from
> the sidelines for a bit and finally jumped in.

Wasn't really an "impulse":
I was all set to help out a neighbors' move and take his old
elephantine-ginormous 34" 1080i tube-set box off his hands that he'd
bought three or four years ago back before the flatscreen days, and make
the Big Leap for around $700...
Only problem was, I wouldn't have had much apartment living-room
left--Also, that I could see 34" was pretty much the effective maximum
screen for my cozy-den, which meant I could stop looking at 36"-40", and
the 150% price-jump thereto...And once past that hurdle, that I could
pretty much stop hoping to find a 1080p at the "small end" size.

Having reached those realizations, I was in Best Buy picking up an
upconverting DVD (since Samsung dropped the ball on a post-October
Java-enabled Blu player), and just happened to find a nice, unassuming
un-room-usurping flatscreen for $750--And making a lateral move didn't
need much persuading. :)

Point is, whining about "Who cares about the War, they haven't got the
TV's anyway!" is gaining less and less currency by the day, now that a
few more chunks of impulse buyers are caring about it--
And that's just the impulse buyers...Now, we wait for the
ATSC-conversion Panic Lemmings to kick in.

Derek Janssen
ejanss@comcast.net

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