Posted by Derek Janssen on 11/16/07 01:29

Lloyd Parsons wrote:

> In article <dQ5%i.8388$WM.3704@trndny05>,
> Derek Janssen <ejanss1@nospam.verizon.net> wrote:
>
>
>>Lloyd Parsons wrote:
>>
>>>In article
>>><054ea034-7277-4b9e-98b2-e8387ab4a510@f3g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
>>> ninphan <sjburke73@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>As long as both remain supported, niche is as good as it gets.
>>>>
>>>>Throwing support behind the format most likely to succeed is my MO, as
>>>>that's the only way one will be successful and all content will stand
>>>>a chance of being released.
>>>>
>>>>One format CAN become mainstream. It is very unlikely to be HD DVD as
>>>>North America is the only place it's still holding on. The number of
>>>>different CE's making standalone players is about to double within the
>>>>next 6-8 months as well.
>>>
>>>That is your read, and I respect that.
>>>
>>>Mine is that I see no way that BD can win in the short term, say within
>>>a year. The pricing is way too high to become the next big thing, imo.
>>>There has to be at least one BD player that is at or near the impulse
>>>buy price. Today that just isn't there, and not even close to it.
>>
>>Basically, the reaction to "I don't see anything happening" is
>>"Oh, big man..."--
>>Seeing as most of the electronics companies and dual studios like Warner
>>are weighing everything on 4Q sales and the CES '08. Say what you like,
>>it's THEIR ritual, and it's what they're going with.
>>
>>As noted, the brief "Look, cheap players!" gambit didn't pan out for HD
>>hearts-and-minds acceptance *quite* as hoped earlier this month (they wanted
>>dopey anonymous consumers, and they GOT dopey anonymous consumers, who don't
>>know how the product's supposed to work)--And if there's "no mainstream
>>acceptance"
>>for Blu, there's even less for HD as we speak...Better to reign in
>>niche-hell than
>>junk in the mainstream.
>>Most companies today are openly ready to go with the "leader", but don't
>>want to
>>stand up and have the spotlight glaring on them before the end of the
>>year Ritual,
>>when it's "acceptable".
>>If that's not today, it's certainly on the calendar, and "shutting up
>>the whiners"
>>has become more a matter of counting the minutes than simply holding out
>>"false hopes".
>>(And believe me, we're counting with every POST.) 9_9
>>We know what WE'RE waiting for, what are you?
>>
>>Lloyd wrote in the next post:
>>
>>>Yeah, right, I'll believe it when I see it...
>>
>>Okay: Black Friday's in November, and CES'08's in January this year,
>>IIRC. That way you don't have to wait too long. Would be nicer if it
>>WAS today, the better to slap war-whiners with, but Time Is What Keeps
>>Everything From Happening At Once.
>>The real consumer push this year is for HDTV, but guess which two
>>products will be getting the press coverage.
>>
>>Derek Janssen (like every modern war, it'll be covered on CNN.)
>>ejanss1@verizon.net
>
>
> The 3 day sale was wildly successful, 90k+ units sold of just the A2
> model.
>
> How successful it will be in the longer term will be defined in how the
> software sells, and how many more they sell at the upcoming $99 sales
> that are sure to come.

Although, as the Blu camp points out, you can sell players for $99 and
not make a profit--Particularly when you LOSE your profit margin on
every $199 player sold below its manufacturing cost.

"But the movies will come to the rescue!"...Unfortunately, that was
Mistake #2 of hoping that Regular Dopes Would Save Them:
The dope who can't tell HD players apart from Blu apparently has also
been having trouble telling Red-case movies apart from Blue-case ones,
and returning their Spiderman 3 disks as "defective".

Fortunately, this hasn't been *as* much of a problem as yet, as most of
the sales I've seen have been from bargain shoppers who thought they
were just buying a "magic" DVD player that would turn all their standard
DVD's in to hi-def on their 4:3 sets.
(That, or the dual-format mercenaries who intentionally just wanted a
cheap upscaler for the spare room. And, reportedly, not a very good one.)

Also, with new marketing pushes (and most hardcore sports fans already
owning a HDTV set), after a year of dragging their heels, Sony and
Disney have now hit on the wildly inspiration of actually ADVERTISING
their product, in a manner such as to actually educate the consumer what
the product is supposed to do.
The idea being, that people who actually buy the product because they
*want* to, and know what the product actually does, may avoid many of
the problems HD should be encountering over the next few months. :)

Derek Janssen (so, the War has come down to Smart People vs. Dopes...And
while dopes may be parted with their money, they're not brand-loyal)
ejanss1@verizon.net

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