Posted by T.B. on 12/08/07 00:47

"Derek Janssen" wrote:

(snip)

> --No, the main theory *being*, that the uncommitted buyers are becoming
> more and more afraid of buying "perishable goods" that they fear they
> might have to replace in a year's time.

I think a bigger factor is that with the dvd format now about a decade old,
almost all the "classic" catalog titles have long since been released, many
for the 2nd, 3rd or 4th+ time on this format and with mostly new theatrical
releases solely fueling the dvd market, the format's sales peak with the
average consumer has been reached the past few years.

I think if the entertainment industry doesn't get it's act together around
either blu-ray or hd-dvd in the next 12 to 18 months, they're setting
themselves up for a long term massive decline in home video sales much like
the music industry is currently suffering from as the public isn't going to
support continued re-re-re-mastering of catalog titles on standard dvd (like
they aren't on cds anymore) and really, how many current theatrical releases
per year does the average consumer buy -5, 10, maybe up to 15? And the
competing HD home video disc format(s) will die on the vine just like SACDs
did a couple years ago.

There's just too big of a gap between commonplace online downloading of
"movies" versus content quality and ease and speed of doing so to say
downloading will support the entertainment industry like hard media product
always has within 5 or even 10 years.

T.B.

[Back to original message]