Posted by Derek Janssen on 12/08/07 01:06

T.B. wrote:
>
>>--No, the main theory *being*, that the uncommitted buyers are becoming
>>more and more afraid of buying "perishable goods" that they fear they
>>might have to replace in a year's time.
>
> I think a bigger factor is that with the dvd format now about a decade old,
> almost all the "classic" catalog titles have long since been released, many
> for the 2nd, 3rd or 4th+ time on this format and with mostly new theatrical
> releases solely fueling the dvd market, the format's sales peak with the
> average consumer has been reached the past few years.

Trust me: Nobody wants to say it (except for Digital Bits, which's been
pushing the "Who cares about the war" flag long after we were beginning
to suspect a winner), but it's true--
Those who don't have a preference yet are terrified that DVD will
disappear tomorrow, and those who do have a preference are sitting back,
putting off specific studio-title purchases, and waiting for that sweet,
sweet upgrade that's only a matter of time....Assuming the latter
haven't already developed that "Eww! >_< " aversion to standard-DVD
resolution.

Which brings us back to the original article, current rumors that Warner
(after symbolically waiting until after the HP movies) might be secretly
saving The Inevitable for a big January CES'08 stunt for the headlines
to lap up, and some nostalgia about how the "pointless" DVD took off
like a starting pistol almost the same *week* as the publicized death of
DIVx.

> I think if the entertainment industry doesn't get it's act together around
> either blu-ray or hd-dvd in the next 12 to 18 months, they're setting
> themselves up for a long term massive decline in home video sales much like
> the music industry is currently suffering from as the public isn't going to
> support continued re-re-re-mastering of catalog titles on standard dvd (like
> they aren't on cds anymore) and really, how many current theatrical releases
> per year does the average consumer buy -5, 10, maybe up to 15? And the
> competing HD home video disc format(s) will die on the vine just like SACDs
> did a couple years ago.

You can't say "People don't go to movies anymore!" -and- "People don't
buy disks anymore!", and hope to keep them both believable
forever...Sooner or later, the two have to cancel each other out. They
have to be watching SOMETHING, and I haven't seen any sales figures to
suggest it's downloads.
No matter how "bad" movies get, there'll always be something--a
"Transformers", maybe, or saints preserve us, a "Golden Compass"--that
the public doesn't want to run to ask Mommy Studio for permission to
play every single time they want to watch it.

Those who bought their first extras-loaded disk back then know, there's
something about hard media on that living-room shelf at home that brings
out the Territorial Control-Freak in any movie fan.

Derek Janssen
ejanss1@verizon.net

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