Posted by Derek Janssen on 01/05/08 23:45

Tarkus wrote:
>>>
>>> "The move to a single standard would prove a major victory for
>>> consumers. Many who have come to enjoy the crisp detail of
>>> high-definition television likely would move ahead with purchases of
>>> advanced DVD players if they knew their technology would not become
>>> obsolete. The Warner decision removes some of that uncertainty, and
>>> appears to eliminate the prospect that Sony will lose out, as it did
>>> with its ill-fated Betamax standard in the battle against VHS."
>>>
>>> http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/tc2008014_928006.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
>>
>> imho, you need to see the forest
>> that exists beyond the trees
>
> Precisely my point. Less uncertainty means more consumers, which will
> lead to lower prices. One only has to look at the history of VHS, CD
> and DVD formats. Once people became confident in the stability of those
> formats, demand went up, and prices came down due to competition and
> manufacturing costs.

As Bill Hunt put it in the Digital Bits:
---
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa148.html#itsover
Warner could have done one of three things: Go Blu-ray exclusive, go
HD-DVD exclusive, or stay neutral. It's apparent from their statement
this morning that Warner knows as well as we do that this format war is
confusing consumers and hurting the chances for high-def packaged media
in the long run. While early adopters online have been happily
back-biting each other these past two years, most folks elsewhere on
planet Earth have just issued a collective yawn. Meanwhile, those
non-early adopter consumers who are actually interested in high-def
discs have sat on the sidelines waiting for the axe to fall on one of
these formats. So for Warner, staying neutral just wasn't an option
anymore. The question then becomes, if you're going to make a change in
strategy, you want to make one that's going to impart genuine forward
momentum on the situation. Warner going HD-DVD exclusive would have
effectively created a 50/50 split in Hollywood studio support for these
formats, resulting in an even bigger stalemate than already exists, and
probably closing the door completely on either of these formats ever
gaining widespread acceptance. On the other hand, Warner going Blu-ray
only makes that studio split 70/30. It effectively gives Blu-ray
exclusive access to 70% of Hollywood studio content. And that's not only
a game changer, it's a game ender.
---

And interesting to see that HD's only biggest counterattack so far is to
try and scrape up any last remaining Sony-is-evil sentiment from last
year to hope to play the "They musta been bribed!" card--Seeing from
firsthand evidence how much animosity the public has against...a format
that's been bribed.
The one fault of trying to "drag your opponent down to your own level"
is that it only reminds observers of just what level that is...And
somehow, I don't think there's much future in the PR counter-strategy of
"Yeah, wouldn't it be something if *they'd* had as much public
embarrassments as WE'VE had!" 9_9

Derek Janssen
ejanss@verizon.net

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