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Posted by bmcswain on 11/24/05 17:06
>>>So you think NTSC will disappear just because terrestrial broadcast
is migrating to a new standard?
Richard,
Thanks for the great response.
Here's where I think this is different.
You can keep a record player/turntable or cassette deck on a shelf with
the stereo in a very small space. At most you lose storage space for
10-15 books, if that.
A televison is not a device that easily sits on a shelf. If fact most
of us have a dedicated space just for the TV and other video
electronics. The TV is the center point of that space. The TV demands
a space in front of it for viewing. It could be a 9'x10' area or, as
it is in our house, 12' x 17 den'. Other things are in that space but
it is arranged and primarily for the TV.
In 2009 when I buy my HDTV and replace my satelite receiver and other
input devices, I will probably give away the TV to Goodwill. That one
will probably have NTSC / S-video connections. (Because of my
background, I am sure it will. My neighbors will probably not even
think about the necessity of NTSC connections in their purchases.)
Fast forward to 2015: I'll probably buy my 2nd, the new and improved
HDTV. HDTV2 probably won't be backward compatible. Why should it be,
in 2015 you will not be able to buy any NTSC devices. Those connectors
will add $50-100 per HDTV and the added expense would make you
non-competitive. HDTV1 is large enough that it won't fit anywhere
else in my house. Again because of space, HDTV1 will go to a worthy
charity.
That is the scenario for my own personal space.
It is a scenario that will be repeated in the industrial sector. Yes,
it will be later: 2020, 2030, etc, but it will come. (Sitting here
re-reading this, I think the industrial sector has already abandoned
NTSC capable input and display devices. Look at most sports bars. Go
to a business HQ. No STV devices, except in the storage rooms. Some
worthy manager will soon need that space and out they go.)
Video content in homes, in museums, in TV production facilites, and
even in Hollywood will be stored, forgotten, and maybe deep six'd. The
more worthy will be converted by a small dedicated group of video
service providers .... in India(?).
Will there be entities and companies that attempt to keep compatibility
alive? You Bet Ya! However, at some point the replacement parts for
failed devices and ic chips will no longer be available. When? I
don't know.
My client, a museum, believes this, too, Unprompted by me they are
seeking solutions.
Bob
(Sidebar: WHAT are we going to do with all the STV's out there in the
next 10 years? You can put them in landfills. Could the be a business
opportunity.)
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