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Posted by CJ on 04/12/06 14:44
"Beck" <beck@photoscene.coo.ukk> wrote in message
news:443ce873$0$9227$ed2619ec@ptn-nntp-reader01.plus.net...
> hangin9999@yahoo.com wrote:
>> blue wrote:
>>> Betamax vs VHS. Sony lost.
>>
>> As someone pointed out, Blu-ray is more than Sony - it includes most
>> of its competitors too like Panasonic (didn't they push VHS?),
>> Samsung, and others. I personally think Blu-ray will win based on the
>> number of manufacturers and studios behind it. Hardware and content.
>
> Perhaps the winner will actually be DVD and both the bigger formats will
> fail. Its quite possible that Joe Public are not quite ready for a new
> format yet. DVD is a relatively new thing in itself and already they are
> trying to beat it with something else.
> The average person who has built up their DVD collection are not going to
> want to fork out so soon for HD versions. Plus the take up of HDTV is
> slow.
I'm not sure where you live, but 2005 was a good year for HDTV in the US,
the "take up" of HDTV is certainly not that slow. In 2005, 30 percent of all
TVs sold were HDTV. That's more than triple the amount sold in 2002, a
pretty fast rate of adoption. By 2008 Jupiter Research predicts 48 percent
of American households will have an HDTV in their homes with a majority in
2009. The "take up" of HDTV will also be helped by the fact that by 2010 or
2012 you won't be able to get a new TV without an HDTV tuner included. If
you've got satellite or digital cable, you won't have to use the tuner to
watch TV but if you get a new TV you'll own one.
Plus, as I've said before, I would not be surprised to see the movie studios
which are banking so much money on HD-DVD or BR force consumers to upgrade
by significantly cutting back or even ending their production on regular
DVDs a lot quicker than they ended production of VHS tapes. Microsoft is
already going to try this strategy with Vista and Halo and is currently
trying to get some 3rd party publishers to go along with them. If a few
major 3rd party publishers and Microsoft in the computer industry start
making Vista only games and are successful in getting the public to adopt
Vista to play their games, why wouldn't movie studios start releasing HD-DVD
or BR only movies to force the public to adopt technology they've got so
much money invested in? I can definitely see by 2008 a studio releasing a
hit movie in the new format with either no, or very little, production in
the current format.
I really don't know which new format wins, but IMO it's definitely not going
to be DVD beating both of the new high def formats.
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