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Posted by Joshua Zyber on 04/14/06 13:01
"~P~" <bmxtrix2005@cox.net> wrote in message
news:yIF%f.2199$ZW3.984@dukeread04...
> I agree that there are many circumstances by which Blu-ray & HD-DVD
> could
> come to coexist. But, I would have to say that it depends a great
> deal on
> what happens with PS3 and then the follow up of players that come out.
You're still presuming that every person who buys a PS3 will use it for
Blu-Ray playback, which is a fallacy. Even though HDTV adoption is on
the rise, the vast majority of households still have only
standard-definition analog TVs. Those people will buy a PS3 to play
videogame and will have no compelling reason to buy Blu-Ray discs to go
with it.
You're also presuming that the PS3 will be as big a hit as the PS2.
Although I'm not ruling this out, the 1-year lead and popular success of
the XBox 360, combined with the PS3's expected pricing of over $500
(recent remarks from Sony hint toward over $600) are going to take a lot
of the steam out of that, especially when Microsoft cuts the price of
the XBox 360 to coincide with the PS3's release (you know that's going
to happen). PS3 will be a big seller, I'm sure, but I am doubtful that
it will reach the PS2's level of success.
> What does the ONE studio (Universal) get from HD-DVD? Less sales =
> less
> revenue = less profits. That's a fine gamble today, but what about
> when
> Blu-ray movies are outselling HD-DVD at 10 to 1 levels? At that
> point, why
> would Warner release in both formats when their sales are ten times as
> great
> for Blu-ray?
This cuts both ways. If HD-DVDs outsell Blu-Rays 10 to 1, what do those
Blu-Ray supporters get out of it?
> While I believe that Blu-ray has the POTENTIAL for a tiny bit better
> overall
> video/audio quality, I don't believe these differences will be taken
> advantage of for some time. So, I believe that both formats will have
> similar, if not identical movie quality out of the gate. This offers
> zero
> advantage to Blu-ray from the start, especially with the price of the
> Toshiba units.
At least we agree on this.
> But, $500 isn't cheap for a lot of people. It's still not
> going to be the 'mass market' player that some may expect. Under $200
> or
> so? Maybe, but not at 500 bucks! This differentiation is where I
> believe
> that Blu-ray marketing has been very clear: They are marketing their
> first
> players to those with more cash. Period. Regardless of actual video
> quality, their players are being directed towards those who have the
> cash to
> blow. Who think $500.00 is nothing, and $1,000 or $1,800 is even less
> and
> well worth every penny. Custom installations will predominantly
> feature
> Blu-ray at the very least. I believe this marketing is quite clear in
> their
> initial product roll out.
Your logic here perplexes me. $500 is expensive, so it won't sell, but
$1000 is more expensive so you think it will sell better? In what
universe does that work?
As for the mass market, you ignore the fact that first-generation
players are at the peak of their pricing. Prices will come down in a
year or so, when people will be able to pick up HD-DVD players for $300
(current DVD players at this price point sell very well), while Blu-Ray
players will still be $700-800.
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