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Posted by Jay G. on 06/19/06 01:53
On Sun, 18 Jun 2006 13:13:31 -0400, Derek Janssen wrote:
> Jay G. wrote:
>
>> On Sat, 17 Jun 2006 23:58:04 -0400, Derek Janssen wrote:
>>
>>>HD-DVD and Blu-Ray: The Esperanto of the home-theater industry.
>>
>> Probably more like the espresso of the HT market, or the cappuccino.
>> Something of a niche product for a number of years, until you turn around
>> and suddenly it's available *everywhere*.
>
> Well, it's true that the companies who make the *makings* for widescreen
> digital/HD screens are making them cheaper, so that companies can make
> them more common in time for Everything to Change, rather like
> auto-makers' sudden push to hybrid technology--
The FCC is requiring *all* TVs produced to have digital tuners in them,
starting this year.
> And now that it's easier for companies to mass-produce screens we can
> even use, why, in three to five years, screens might be down
> to...oh...dare we dream?...$900 or less!
There are plenty of HD-ready LCD TVs for less than $900 today. HD-ready
CRTs are even less.
>> Kinda like DVD when it first came out.
>
> Uh, wonder why DVD *suddenly* happened in the summer of '99, and not a
> slow evolution from it's '96-'97 opening in said niche-geek obscurity?
> Might it have something to do with the "V-E Day" of DiVX suddenly
> announcing bankruptcy, curious mainstream home-theater fans dancing in
> the streets that the Format War Was Over If You Wanted It, and THEN it
> was everywhere?
DIVX was around for only 7-8 months, from winter of 98 to summer of 99. It
was at best a hiccup in DVD adoption, especially since every DIVX player
could play DVDs, so there was no real competition in an "either/or" sense.
More likely, if adoption of the format actually did "explode" in 99, it was
because the prices on players had finally come down to a reasonable level,
and that all the major studios had finally jumped on the bandwagon.
> Kinda like VHS when it first came out.
Beta had a far larger market than DIVX ever did, and even had the lead for
a while.
> (Me, I was there: I remember rushing down to Circuit City in June,
> hoping to vulture a cheap salvage DVD-converted 'X player, by the time
> they'd be *giving* them away--
You may have "been there," but you aren't remembering it correctly. The
DIVX players were never clearanced out. They could always play DVDs, out
of the box from day one. They did cost $100 more than a comparable DVD
player, and when DIVX was discontinued, Circuit City marked down the
players accordingly, even offering $100 rebates to previous purchasers.
> In short, if we ARE going by history, one format will sell when the
> other is dead, and not before. Sit tight, we got a nice...long...wait.
Or, like DVD-R and DVD+R, both could co-exist in the market with the
majority of people buying players that could work with both. Or like VHS
and Beta, both could be popular enough to cause interesting inventories at
video stores and cause a *real* hurt when one format goes under.
-Jay
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