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Posted by jessica_smith_nyc on 09/27/02 11:51
The Beta vs VHS battle of the 21st century?
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http://www.moviesitearchive.com/
Black Locust wrote:
> 10 Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed
> Wednesday, June 21 2006
>
> I¹m not typically a doom and gloom kind of guy really, I¹m rather
> optimistic. But this pending format release/war is simply the most
> ridiculous thing I¹ve seen in a long time. The hype machine is entirely
> enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a
> fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its
> release, I began to understand the power of public mania.
>
> There are a number of reasons why the new high definition DVD formats
> have already failed and I¹ll gladly go over some of them in this
> article. I am not a soothsayer, but I do study the industry and at
> times, sit back and take assessment of what¹s happening from both a
> consumer and manufacturer perspective.
>
> Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc
> will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:
>
> 1. Nobody likes false starts
> With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a
> buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a
> speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream
> came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a
> player that didn¹t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software
> does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track,
> the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of
> HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of
> software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.
>
> 2. Format Wars Don¹t Sell Players
> The only reason Sony¹s Playstation, Microsoft¹s Xbox and the Nintendo
> GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of
> excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they
> can play the software. This is not a format war it is choice, just
> like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have
> one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just
> the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to
> provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too
> greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly
> separate products successfully. Take careful note a format war is NOT
> competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.
>
> 3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
> Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The
> new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to
> instantly access tracks across an entire ³album². Convenience, not
> technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast
> forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again,
> convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike
> VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would
> not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the
> concept of a shiny plastic disc was new and quite frankly, it was the
> coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state
> technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the
> color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the same and
> consumer confusion will surely follow.
>
> What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD?
> Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life.
> Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their
> players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their
> current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in
> the last several years). While the potential for more extras and
> alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media,
> there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new
> high definition DVD formats in large numbers.
>
> 4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
> Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss
> out on market advances even those that can make them money (ie. Why is
> a computer company running the world¹s most successful online music
> store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD
> bandwagon just yet and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If
> the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the
> next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software
> titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next
> 10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they
> seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip
> or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking
> place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist
> with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a
> new, unproven technology even if it saves them from some other
> copyright headaches.
>
> Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and
> this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for
> consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large
> electronics chains.
>
> 5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
> We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will ³jump
> start² the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable
> of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that
> the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if
> current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the
> average consumer¹s living room. The result is that the PS3 will
> primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional
> group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account
> #4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward
> in market penetration as a home video format at least not anytime
> soon.
>
> History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by
> such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a
> place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2,
> Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as ³set-top
> boxes² but in reality find themselves situated in more ³gaming-centric²
> environments playing you guessed it, games.
>
> 6. Those Who Ignore History
> For years we¹ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading.
> All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could
> have prevented any illegal copying at least for all but the most
> dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be
> higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes
> and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats
> failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why?
> Without an artificial ³shove² from the record industry which never
> materialized technology alone is never enough to push a new format
> into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use,
> DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made
> listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to
> correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new
> formats.
>
> Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording
> industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the ³format war² had
> been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other)
> we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music
> would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a
> stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed
> causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a
> short term loss of licensing revenues.
>
> 7. People Want Technology that¹s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
> For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being
> able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy
> Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference
> between that and his older SD TV is amazing at least when he¹s
> watching DVDs. You see, that¹s the problem and it¹s two-fold. While
> most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they¹re already
> impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing
> than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high
> definition discs.
>
> The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV
> and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he
> is dumbfounded by his cable TV which actually looks worse than it did
> on his old set (mostly because it¹s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy
> Bob that he¹d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his
> cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite
> shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren¹t yet available
> in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many
> Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The
> last thing they¹re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest
> thing.
>
> 8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
> While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and
> inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as
> they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by
> 8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP
> HDTV) these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard
> before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a
> shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even
> less sales to early-adopters.
>
> 9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn¹t Help
> I¹ll admit it, we¹re part of the ³problem² (though I¹d like to think
> we¹re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An
> increasingly skeptical news media isn¹t buying into the hype of HD DVD
> and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on
> DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle
> into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to
> proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new
> DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba
> flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at
> least not yet) is hard to avoid.
>
> 10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
> With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD
> on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high
> definition DVD will be something that isn¹t relevant in a
> service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer¹s recent push
> for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more
> interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality
> source material. Even with respect to high definition formats,
> downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high
> definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer
> model is being readied for testing in South Carolina¹s head-end for Time
> Warner Cable this year.
>
> So, while I certainly hope for the best, that¹s my story and I¹m
> stickin¹ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best,
> not an industry takeover.
>
> By Clint DeBoer
>
> http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php
> --
> "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
> They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
> and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush
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