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Posted by Derek Janssen on 12/16/06 19:49
Mark Jones wrote:
>
> Right now a major cost factor is the manufacturers recovering
> R&D costs, not strictly the price of making the products. Paying
> that price is what you put up with if you want new technology.
>
> The prices will probably be a lot lower by the end of 2007. If
> they don't get the prices down, the conversion to HD movies
> is going to occur very slowly.
The Frustrating Loop is that:
- Prices won't come down until production steps up and assembly parts
become more commonly available,
- Production won't step up until sales pick up,
- Sales won't pick up until people start buying them,
- People won't start buying them until there's a clear "winner" in the
format wars,
- There's no clear winner in the format war because of low sales,
- Low sales have kept companies producing small numbers of the players
at high prices and low demand for rare assembly parts.
At this rate, the industry could snip the Loop with their own scissors
by either calling a truce, like DVD-vs.-DiVX did, or negotiating a
secret winner behind our backs, like VHS did.
And we already know they're too mulehead-proud to pick the first
one...From all the recent Blu-Ray activity, got the distinct hint it's
the latter.
Derek Janssen (I just read it in next month's newspaper)
ejanss@comcast.net
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