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Posted by <normanstrong on 01/13/07 17:51
<Rexunrex@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1167619148.476168.320960@v33g2000cwv.googlegroups.com...
>I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
> have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>
> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
> video card, even that is useless.
They're too expensive for widespread adoption AT THE PRESENT TIME, but they
may get a lot cheaper in the near future. They may even be subsidized by
the manufacturers.
> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
> to be resolved.
>
> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
That's just a personal opinion. It's also applicable to DVDs, which we all
know are a howling success.
> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
Strictly you feelings. I'm not at all sure the general public agrees with
you--or even cares that much.
> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
The financial condition of the country does not have a differential effect
on HDTV.
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
>
> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml
You can say that about any and every field. Something better is always
coming.
> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
>
> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
> a true Fool's Errand.
It may work out just as you say, but it's not a self-evident proposition.
Norm Strong
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