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Posted by Zackman on 01/23/07 05:45
asjbiotek@gmail.com <asjbiotek@gmail.com> spake thusly:
> You do know you proved my point right? especially given the two
> factors i listed :
>
> 1. FIVE major studios are NOT releasing titles in hddvd.
Actually, it's three. Sony/MGM (same company), Disney and Fox. But the porn
studios are leaning towards HD DVD, and anyone who followed the VHS vs.
Betamax war knows that porn getting behind VHS was one of the reasons that
format ultimately won. The porn industry as a whole makes more money on home
video sales than any single Hollywood studio does.
> Therefore, as
> time passes (and as shown in the period from 2006 to today) the number
> of blu-ray titles will become SIGNIFICANTLY larger than hd-dvd.
Unless Blu-ray doesn't gain any meaningful traction and/or HD DVD pulls
ahead, in which case all the studios have to do is say, "OK, we're going to
release on HD DVD now too." You know that none of the studios signed
exclusivity agreements, right? And that HD DVD is quicker and easier to
manufature?
Right now studio support is the only true advantage Blu-ray has. So far it
hasn't done anything to help the sale of Blu-ray players.
> 2. As time passes, the number of blu-ray players will become
> overwhelmingly larger than hd-dvd, since: (a) More manufacturers are
> producing blu-ray (Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, etc)
LOL, that's some interesting logic. You think there's so much demand for
Blu-ray players that it takes a bunch of manufacturers working together to
meet it? Afraid not. In fact it just makes it even less desirable for those
manufacturers to invest a lot in Blu-ray player design and manufacture,
because there's more competition for the same teensy tiny segment of the
market that actually wants this technology right now.
(b) PS3 sales by
> itself far outnumber any hddvd players.
So? There are over 10 million PSPs out there -- why did UMD movies die a
painful death? I'm sure a lot of PS3 owners will buy a Blu-ray movie or two
out of curiosity -- I did -- but those million or so PS3s aren't going to
turn the tide in Blu-ray's favor. Hell, a certain percentage of those PS3s
can't even be used for Blu-ray movies because they were bought by people
with standard def TV sets. And even though the PS3 is the cheapest Blu-ray
player available, they are gathering dust on store shelves. Even a Blu-ray
player PLUS a next-gen gaming system together in one device isn't enough to
motivate the average consumer to buy one.
> THEREFORE, given the larger
> player base (and as shown in numbers of discs sold from 2006 to today,
> where sales of hddvd was much larger than blu-ray in 2006, but where
> blu-ray now surpasses it by almost 60:40), the sales for blu-ray will
> become significantly larger than hd-dvd sales as time passes.
You need to go back to college and take Statistics 101.
Face it, this format was is going to drag on for a couple more years. And as
long as the two technologies are so evenly matched, most consumers won't
feel compelled to buy either.
-Z-
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