|
|
Posted by Doug Jacobs on 01/17/07 22:33
In alt.games.video.xbox asjbiotek@gmail.com wrote:
> Doug Jacobs wrote:
> > I dunno, their Xbox 360 game console is thrashing Sony's PS3 so far. Sony
> read the reports.....playstation 3 is projected to ultimately top total
> sales of Xbox 360 even with the 1 year head start of xbox360 as games
> start rolling out for the playstation 3.
> http://www.psu.com/node/6464
> New Year 2007 for PlayStation 3 begins with a new report from Ireland
> based Business analyst firm Research and Markets which claims PS3 will
> maintain the largest market share by 2010; albeit with a slimmer margin
> than in previous generations.
For every report from an analyst that says one thing, I can find one that
says the opposite. Analysts don't know everything, and are even wrong
most of the time.
Right now, the 360 has a 8-9 million unit lead over the the PS3. Even if
the 360 stopped selling completely, that'd still mean that Sony would have
to see consumer sales approaching 700-800k a month. Yes, Europe's launch
is coming up, but now that Europe has had time to view Japan and America's
reaction to the PS3, I have to wonder if sales in Europe will be a bit
cooler than if Sony had included them in the release as well. For
instance, I doubt we'll be reading about hordes of Europeans buying PS3s
for the sole purpose of flipping them on Ebay - that market has already
gone bust. Also, with unbiased reports about the PS3's lack of games,
mish-mash online experience, and other issues, I have to wonder if most
Europeans will simply give the PS3 a 'wait-see' - resulting in even MORE
dismal sales figures, if such a thing is even possible.
If the PS3 is going to over take the 360 by the end of the year, it's
going to need GAMES. Looking at the release schedule for the PS3, I don't
see this happening. Remember - the PS3 is still $200 more expensive than
the 360. Microsoft could even drop the price of the 360 if they wanted at
any time, and make this gap even wider.
Even if Square releases FFXIII on time later this year, that's not going
to be enough to convince millions of people to spend $600 on a console.
In the meantime, it's not like Microsoft or Nintendo are standing still.
Both will be releasing more games this year, and will undoubtedly be
selling more consoles as well. In fact, the Wii is still selling out as
fast as Nintendo can ship them to retailers and it's already outsold the
PS3. Meanwhile, there are PS3s to be found at virtually every store - and
there they sit. Sony may be claiming big numbers based on their
SHIPMENTS, but in terms of sales to end-consumers it's quite a different
story. Eventually Sony will completely stuff their channels, meaning
retailers will actually stop accepting PS3s until they actually sell
through their current stock. This puts Sony in a very dangerous
situation.
> The firm believes that the PlayStation 3 will ultimately maintain the
> largest market share, with 75 million PS3s sold worldwide by 2010.
> However, the company doesn't expect the PS3 to dominate the new console
> cycle the same way the PlayStation 2 did last generation, due largely
> to European "late launch issues" and the head start of the Xbox 360.
When was this report published? Before the PS3 launched in Japan/US I
suspect...
For this to come true, the PS3 will have to sell over 20 million units in
2007. More than twice what Microsoft was able to do when they had the
market to themselves. That would mean the PS3 would have to be selling
around 1.7 million consoles a month. However, Sony has just announced
their shipments just hit the 2 million mark - which means that if the PS3
really is on its way towards selling 20 million units in 2007, the PS3
should be completely sold out with new shipments being snapped up even as
the trucks are pulling into the stores' parking lots. Ebay would be
seeing brisk sales of PS3s at prices much higher than MSRP as well.
However, that's not happening. PS3s are sitting on shelves at many major
stores - while the Wii sells out, and in greater numbers. Folks who dreamt
of making big bucks on eBay have tried to return their PS3s after auctions
closed with no takers.
Heck, even if you interpret the report's estimate of 75mil by 2010 to
include ALL of 2010 - meaning Sony has 4 years, instead of 3, to hit that
number, we're still talking about an average of over 18 million units sold
each year - which is still twice the number of consoles Microsoft managed
to sell in its first year when there were no other next-gen consoles on
the market.
The only title that could come close to selling a million consoles that's
on the schedule this year is FFXIII. But $600 is an awful lot of money to
spend for just one game - even Final Fantasy.
--
Win cash and giftcards just for clicking your mouse!
http://www.netwinner.com/?signupCode=amuro98
Navigation:
[Reply to this message]
|